Ming-Chi Kuo from KGI has released another note to investors today, attempting to predict the performance of Apple’s new smartphone trio during the key holiday quarter and at the start of 2018. Kuo also notes the negative impact the iPhone X will have on demand for the iPhone 8, which he anticipates will sell worse than originally expected
Kuo estimates that the iPhone X will sell between 22 and 24 million units in the last quarter of the year and will maintain its strong performance in the early months of 2018. The flagship’s production is expected to grow 35% to 45% over the next quarter as supply shortages finally ease off.
As for the other two new iPhones – the iPhone 8 demand is expected to remain lower than expectations and Apple will reduce its production by more than half in Q1 of 2018. The iPhone 8 Plus, on the other hand, slightly exceeds predictions, as it remains the solitary option for those wanting a large screen iPhone.
Still, Kuo predicts that Apple and its manufacturing partner Hon Hai will switch some of the iPhone 8 Plus manufacturing lines to produce iPhone X to help boost production. That should enable 25 to 27 million units of the anniversary iPhone to reach the market before the end of the year.
Finally, the analyst says that the iPhone 8 Plus, on the other hand, is selling slightly above initial estimates. This, in part, Kuo explains, is part of what is cannibalizing demand for the 4.7-inch iPhone 8.
He was also sure to point out that Apple has never launched three iPhone models in such close proximity, so there’s a level of uncertainty when trying to predict mix.